Every week, we publish forecasts for USD/INR, EUR/USD and MCX Gold. Each one contains a bias, a price range, technical indicators and four narrative sections. Here's how to use all of it.
1. The Bias: Bullish, Bearish or Neutral
The bias is our headline call for the week's likely direction:
The bias is derived from a 2-of-3 vote: RSI positioning, MACD direction and EMA crossover. If at least 2 of these 3 signals agree, we assign that bias.
2. RSI — Relative Strength Index
RSI(14) measures how fast a price has been moving, on a scale of 0–100:
Note: we use a threshold of 55 (not 50) for our bullish signal. This reduces false positives from mid-range noise.
3. MACD — Trend Direction
MACD (12/26/9) tells us about momentum direction. We report it as:
- Up — the MACD line crossed above the signal line, or is widening upwards
- Down — the MACD line crossed below the signal line, or is widening downwards
- Flat — MACD and signal line are close together; no clear momentum
MACD is a lagging indicator — it confirms trends that are already forming, rather than predicting new ones.
4. EMA — Trend Structure
We track the 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages:
- When EMA20 > EMA50: uptrend structure → contributes to bullish bias
- When EMA20 < EMA50: downtrend structure → contributes to bearish bias
5. The Price Range
Our weekly range estimate is calculated from ATR(14) — the Average True Range over 14 days. We take 1.2× the ATR and project it above and below the current price. This gives a probable range, not a guaranteed one.
Example
If USD/INR is at ₹84.50 and ATR(14) is ₹0.45, our range estimate would be roughly ₹84.50 ± ₹0.54, i.e. ₹83.96 – ₹85.04.
6. The Four Sections Explained
Reminder: All forecasts are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Always use risk management and never risk more than you can afford to lose.