EUR/USD Forecast
This Week

EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1605, with a weekly range estimate of 1.1534 to 1.1676. The pair has shown a bullish bias, supported by a MACD bullish crossover, though the RSI(14) at 44.2 remains below the neutral 50 mark, indicating room for upside momentum. Last week, the euro gained ground against a softer US dollar, driven by expectations of a less hawkish Federal Reserve. However, the EMA20 remaining below EMA50 suggests a longer-term bearish undertone. For Indian traders, EUR/USD movements directly impact the EUR/INR derived pair, influencing import costs for EU-sourced goods and export competitiveness for Indian businesses trading with the European Union, India's largest trade partner. The current sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with traders eyeing key US events this week for further direction.

This week, three macro factors will drive EUR/USD. First, the US FOMC Statement on Wednesday is the most critical event, as any hints of rate cuts or dovish language could weaken the dollar further, pushing EUR/USD toward resistance. Second, the RBI MPC Minutes on Monday will influence USD/INR, indirectly affecting the EUR/INR cross and Indian importers' hedging decisions. Third, US Initial Jobless Claims and PMI Flash data on Thursday and Friday will provide clues on US economic health, impacting risk appetite. For Indian traders, a stronger euro means higher import costs for machinery, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals from the EU, while exporters of textiles and IT services may benefit from improved margins. FII flows into Indian markets may also shift based on dollar strength.

Key support lies at 1.1523, a level that has held in recent sessions. A break below this could trigger a move toward 1.1400, as bearish momentum resumes. Resistance is at 1.1653, and a sustained break above this would open the path to the weekly high estimate of 1.1676. If 1.1676 is breached, the next target is 1.1720. For Indian traders, these levels are crucial for EUR/INR pricing; a break above resistance would likely push EUR/INR higher, impacting import costs. Conversely, a drop below support could provide relief for Indian importers but hurt exporters. The RSI near 44 suggests the pair has room to rise before becoming overbought, making resistance levels key to watch.

The directional view for EUR/USD this week is cautiously bullish, with a bias toward testing resistance at 1.1653 and potentially 1.1676. The MACD bullish crossover supports this, but the bearish EMA alignment warns of potential reversals. Key events to watch are the US FOMC Statement on Wednesday, which could either validate the bullish bias or reverse it if the Fed sounds hawkish. For Indian traders, monitoring the RBI MPC Minutes on Monday is also important, as it may affect INR volatility and the EUR/INR cross. Key levels to monitor are support at 1.1523 and resistance at 1.1653. A close above 1.1653 would confirm bullish momentum, while a break below 1.1523 would signal a bearish shift. Trade with caution around these events.