EUR/USD Forecast
This Week

EUR/USD is trading at 1.1678, near the top of its weekly range of 1.1613–1.1743, with a clear bullish bias. The pair has been supported by a stronger euro amid improving Eurozone growth data and a softer US dollar as markets price in a potential Fed pause. Technical indicators confirm the bullish momentum: RSI(14) is at 70.2, indicating overbought conditions, while MACD remains above its signal line and the EMA20 is above the EMA50. This suggests the uptrend is intact but may face short-term pullback risk. For Indian traders, the EUR/USD movement directly impacts the EUR/INR derived pair, affecting importers who pay in euros and exporters who receive euros. The upcoming RBI MPC minutes and US FOMC statement will be key catalysts for volatility this week.

This week, the most significant macro drivers for EUR/USD are the US FOMC statement on Wednesday and the RBI MPC minutes on Monday. The FOMC's tone on interest rates and inflation will directly influence USD strength; a dovish stance could push EUR/USD higher, while a hawkish surprise may trigger a reversal. For Indian traders, the RBI MPC minutes will provide cues on domestic rate policy, impacting USD/INR and indirectly affecting EUR/INR. Additionally, US Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday and US PMI Flash on Friday will offer fresh data on the US economy, potentially swaying the dollar. India-specific factors include FII flows into Indian markets, which are sensitive to global risk sentiment driven by US policy. A weaker dollar typically benefits emerging markets like India, attracting foreign investment and supporting the rupee.

The immediate resistance is at 1.1678, the current rate, which has acted as a ceiling. A decisive break above this level could open the path toward the weekly range high of 1.1743, and beyond that, psychological resistance at 1.1800. On the downside, the first support is at 1.1597, which aligns with the lower end of the recent consolidation. If this support is broken, the next target would be the weekly range low of 1.1613, followed by the EMA50 zone. Given the RSI is overbought, a pullback to test support is plausible. For Indian traders, these levels translate into corresponding EUR/INR values, so monitoring them helps in planning entry and exit points for cross-currency trades.

The weekly outlook for EUR/USD remains bullish, but with a cautionary note due to overbought conditions. The pair is likely to test the resistance at 1.1678 early in the week; a successful breakout could lead to a rally toward 1.1743. However, the FOMC statement on Wednesday is the key risk event—if the Fed signals higher-for-longer rates, the dollar could strengthen, pushing EUR/USD back toward 1.1597. Indian traders should also watch the RBI MPC minutes for any impact on USD/INR, which could spill over to EUR/INR. The medium-impact data on Thursday and Friday may cause short-term fluctuations. Overall, the bias is upward, but traders should wait for confirmation after the FOMC before taking directional positions. Key levels to monitor are 1.1678 and 1.1597.