USD/INR Forecast
This Week

USD/INR opened the week at ₹94.54, maintaining a bullish bias after closing the previous session near the upper end of its weekly range. The pair has been supported by persistent dollar demand from importers and a cautious stance from the RBI, which is widely expected to intervene at levels above ₹95.50 to prevent excessive volatility. The RSI at 40.0 suggests the pair is not yet overbought, while the MACD remains flat, indicating a lack of strong momentum. The EMA20 crossing above the EMA50 reinforces the medium-term bullish structure. Last week, the rupee faced pressure from sustained FII outflows and rising crude oil prices, which widened India's current account deficit concerns. The overall sentiment remains tilted towards further upside, with traders eyeing the RBI MPC minutes and US FOMC statement as potential catalysts.

This week, the primary driver for USD/INR will be the RBI MPC minutes released on Monday at 14:00 IST. Any hawkish commentary on inflation or growth could prompt the RBI to defend the rupee more aggressively, potentially capping upside near ₹95.70. Conversely, a dovish tone may accelerate losses. The US FOMC statement on Wednesday is equally critical; a hawkish Fed could strengthen the dollar globally, pushing USD/INR towards resistance at ₹95.99. Domestically, FII flows remain a key factor—recent selling in Indian equities has added to rupee weakness. Additionally, import demand for crude and gold remains robust, keeping the current account deficit under pressure. Traders should also watch US Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday and US PMI Flash on Friday for further dollar direction.

The immediate support stands at ₹94.53, which aligns with the current rate and the lower end of recent consolidation. A break below this level could open the door towards ₹93.37, the weekly range low, though the RBI is likely to defend the rupee around ₹94.00 through intervention. On the upside, resistance is firm at ₹95.99, representing the upper boundary of the weekly range and a key psychological level. A decisive close above ₹95.99 would signal strong bullish momentum, potentially targeting ₹96.50. However, the RBI's presence near ₹95.50–₹95.70 could slow the advance. If resistance holds, the pair may consolidate within the ₹94.53–₹95.99 range, with a break on either side dictating the next directional move.

The outlook for USD/INR this week is cautiously bullish, with a bias towards testing the upper resistance at ₹95.99. The RBI MPC minutes and US FOMC statement will be the key events to watch. If the RBI signals a more accommodative stance, the rupee could weaken further, while a hawkish Fed would add to dollar strength. Traders should monitor the ₹94.53 support level closely—a break below could shift sentiment bearish. Key levels to watch are ₹95.70 (intervention zone) and ₹95.99 (resistance). A close above ₹95.99 would confirm the bullish bias, while a move below ₹94.53 may lead to a retest of ₹93.37. Given the high-impact events, volatility is expected to spike mid-week, so position sizing and risk management are crucial.