USD/INR Forecast
This Week

The USD/INR pair is trading at ₹95.39, maintaining a bullish bias after a week that saw the rupee face persistent pressure from global dollar strength and domestic import demand. The weekly range is estimated between ₹94.67 and ₹96.11, with the pair currently hovering near the lower end of that band. Technical indicators present a mixed picture: RSI(14) at 36.5 suggests the pair is not yet oversold, while MACD remains flat, indicating a lack of strong directional momentum. However, the EMA20 sitting above the EMA50 confirms a bullish medium-term structure. Sentiment is cautiously optimistic for the dollar, supported by India's widening current account deficit and steady FII outflows from equity markets. The RBI is widely expected to defend the rupee near the ₹95.33 support level, with possible intervention if the pair threatens to break higher. Last week's price action was largely driven by global risk-off flows and month-end import hedging, keeping the pair supported above the psychological ₹95 mark.

This week, the most significant India-specific driver is the RBI MPC Minutes release on Monday, June 16, at 14:00 IST. Any hawkish commentary on inflation or hints of further rate hikes could support the rupee, while a dovish tone may weaken it. Additionally, FII flows remain a critical factor—continued selling in Indian equities could push USD/INR higher, whereas any reversal in flows would provide relief. Import demand, particularly for crude oil and gold, is another persistent pressure point, as higher import bills widen the current account deficit and increase USD demand. On the global front, the US FOMC statement on Wednesday, June 18, will be pivotal; a hawkish surprise could strengthen the dollar and push USD/INR toward the upper end of the range. Traders should also watch US Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday and the US PMI Flash on Friday for additional dollar direction cues.

Immediate support is at ₹95.33, a level that has held multiple times and is likely defended by the RBI through state bank dollar sales. A break below this could trigger stop-loss selling, potentially dragging the pair toward the lower end of the weekly range at ₹94.67. On the upside, resistance is at ₹96.28, a level that has capped rallies in recent sessions. A sustained close above this would signal strong bullish momentum and open the door for a test of ₹96.11, the upper bound of the weekly range. If the RBI intervenes aggressively, it could create a temporary ceiling near ₹95.80–₹96.00, but without intervention, the pair may grind higher. Traders should watch these levels closely, as breaks above or below are likely to set the tone for the rest of the month.

The bias remains bullish for USD/INR, but the pair is at a critical juncture. With RSI at 36.5, there is room for upside before reaching overbought conditions. The key event is the US FOMC statement on Wednesday; if the Fed signals prolonged high rates, the dollar could rally, pushing USD/INR toward ₹96.11 or even ₹96.28. Conversely, a dovish tone could weaken the dollar, allowing the rupee to recover toward ₹95.00. The RBI MPC Minutes on Monday will also be closely watched—any surprise hawkishness could provide short-term rupee support. For the week, expect a range-bound trade with a bullish tilt, with ₹95.33 as the first line of defense. A break below that would invalidate the bullish bias, while a close above ₹96.28 would confirm further upside. Monitor FII flows and crude oil prices for intraday cues.