USD/INR Forecast
This Week

USD/INR is trading at ₹95.71, with a weekly range estimate of ₹95.30 to ₹96.12. The pair has been consolidating in a tight band, reflecting a neutral bias. Last week, the rupee found support from sustained FII inflows into Indian equities, which offset import demand for dollars. However, the upside is capped by RBI's vigilant intervention near the ₹95.80-96.00 zone, as the central bank aims to prevent excessive volatility. Technical indicators show RSI at 59.7, indicating mild bullish momentum but not overbought, while MACD is flat, suggesting a lack of directional conviction. The EMA20 is above EMA50, a bullish crossover, but the pair is struggling to break above the resistance at ₹95.82. Overall, sentiment is cautious, with traders awaiting the RBI MPC minutes and the US FOMC decision for fresh cues.

This week, the RBI MPC minutes (Monday, 14:00 IST) will be the primary India-specific driver, offering insights into the central bank's stance on inflation and growth, which could influence INR sentiment. Additionally, the US FOMC statement (Wednesday, 18:00 IST) is crucial; any hawkish surprise could strengthen the dollar and push USD/INR higher, while a dovish tone may ease pressure on the rupee. FII flows remain a key factor—continued inflows into Indian equities would support the rupee, but any reversal due to global risk aversion could weaken it. Import demand for crude oil and gold remains a structural drag, given India's current account deficit. Seasonally, June tends to see moderate dollar demand from importers, but RBI's presence near ₹95.80-96.00 acts as a cap.

The immediate support is at ₹95.20, a level that has held multiple times over the past sessions. A break below this could trigger a slide towards ₹95.00, with the next psychological support at ₹94.80. On the upside, resistance is at ₹95.82, which aligns with the upper end of the weekly range estimate. A sustained close above ₹95.82 would open the door to test ₹96.12, the weekly high, and potentially ₹96.50 if momentum builds. However, RBI's intervention is likely near ₹95.80-96.00, which could limit upside. Conversely, if support at ₹95.20 is broken, the pair may find fresh sellers, but the central bank may step in to prevent a sharp depreciation. Traders should watch these levels closely.

The outlook for USD/INR is neutral-to-slightly bullish, with a bias towards consolidation within the ₹95.30-96.12 range. The RBI MPC minutes could provide a dovish or hawkish surprise, impacting the rupee's trajectory. The US FOMC statement is the key external event; if the Fed signals a delay in rate cuts, the dollar could rally, pushing USD/INR towards ₹96.00. Conversely, a dovish Fed could weaken the dollar, allowing the rupee to appreciate towards ₹95.30. Watch the ₹95.82 resistance and ₹95.20 support for breakout signals. A close above ₹95.82 would confirm bullish momentum, while a break below ₹95.20 would negate the current bullish EMA crossover. Given the high-impact events, expect increased volatility, and traders should manage positions carefully.