MCX Gold Forecast
This Week

MCX Gold is trading at ₹144,029 per 10 grams, having sustained a strong bullish momentum that pushed prices to fresh highs last week. The metal's rally is supported by a combination of a weaker US dollar, elevated geopolitical uncertainty, and robust domestic demand ahead of the festive season. Technical indicators remain firmly in bullish territory, with RSI at 88.1 signalling overbought conditions, while MACD stays above its signal line, confirming upward momentum. The EMA20 remains above EMA50, reinforcing the medium-term uptrend. However, the extreme RSI reading suggests that a short-term pullback or consolidation cannot be ruled out. Indian traders are closely watching the RBI MPC minutes and the US FOMC statement, both of which could influence USD/INR and, consequently, MCX Gold pricing. Sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with buyers defending support near ₹139,670.

The most significant event this week is the US FOMC statement on Wednesday, June 18, which will shape global gold sentiment. If the Fed signals a pause or hints at rate cuts, gold could extend gains; any hawkish surprise may trigger profit-booking. Domestically, the RBI MPC minutes on Monday will be scrutinised for cues on interest rates and INR stability, directly impacting MCX pricing through the USD/INR leg. Additionally, India's gold import duty at 15% continues to influence local premiums, and with Akshaya Tritiya and Diwali approaching, seasonal buying is expected to provide underlying support. RBI's ongoing gold reserve accumulation adds a structural bid to the market. Traders should also monitor US jobless claims and PMI data for dollar direction. A weaker dollar typically boosts gold, while a stronger dollar pressures MCX prices via the rupee.

The immediate resistance is at the current rate of ₹144,029, which also acts as a psychological barrier. A decisive break above this level could open the door towards the upper end of the weekly range at ₹147,516. On the downside, the first support is at ₹139,670, a level that has previously acted as a springboard for buyers. If this support is broken, the next target would be the lower band of the weekly range at ₹140,542, though a close below ₹139,670 would signal a deeper correction. Given the overbought RSI, a pullback to test support is plausible, but the bullish trend suggests that dips may be bought. Traders should watch for a daily close above or below these levels to confirm the next directional move.

The bias for MCX Gold remains bullish, but with RSI at 88.1, the risk of a short-term correction is elevated. The weekly range is estimated between ₹140,542 and ₹147,516, with the current rate near the upper end. Key levels to monitor are resistance at ₹144,029 and support at ₹139,670. The FOMC statement on Wednesday will be the primary catalyst; a dovish tone could push prices towards ₹147,000, while a hawkish surprise might trigger a pullback to ₹140,500. The RBI MPC minutes and US jobless claims will also influence USD/INR and gold's trajectory. Indian traders should watch for any sharp moves in the rupee, as a weaker INR would amplify gold's gains. Given the overbought conditions, prudent risk management is advised, including the use of stop-losses and position sizing.