MCX Gold Forecast
This Week

MCX Gold is trading at ₹125,956 per 10 grams, with a bearish bias as the weekly range is estimated between ₹123,690 and ₹128,222. The metal has been under pressure from a strengthening US dollar and elevated US Treasury yields, which typically weigh on gold prices. The RSI at 60.1 indicates moderate bullish momentum, but the MACD is flat, suggesting a lack of clear directional strength. The EMA20 is below the EMA50, confirming a bearish crossover in the medium term. For Indian traders, the domestic price is also influenced by the rupee's movement against the dollar, with the RBI's MPC minutes due this week likely to provide cues on the currency. Sentiment is cautious ahead of the US FOMC statement, as any hawkish tone could further dampen gold's appeal. Import duty at 15% continues to add a premium to domestic prices, while festive demand remains a supportive factor.

The primary driver this week is the US FOMC statement on Wednesday, which will set the tone for global gold prices. If the Fed signals a prolonged pause or hints at rate hikes, gold could face selling pressure. Conversely, any dovish surprise may trigger a rebound. The RBI MPC minutes, released on Monday, will impact the USD/INR pair, directly affecting MCX Gold's rupee-denominated price. A weaker rupee would make gold more expensive locally, even if international prices remain stable. Additionally, India's festive season is approaching, with Akshaya Tritiya and Diwali buying patterns starting to influence physical demand. The 15% import duty remains a structural factor, and any talk of duty changes could alter the domestic premium. Traders should also monitor US jobless claims and PMI data for further dollar direction.

The key support level is at ₹123,124, a strong floor that has held in recent sessions. If this level breaks, the next target could be the lower end of the weekly range at ₹123,690, though a close below ₹123,124 would signal a deeper correction. On the upside, resistance is at ₹127,431, which aligns with the upper weekly range of ₹128,222. A breakout above ₹127,431 could open the door to testing ₹128,222, but the bearish EMA crossover suggests that rallies may be limited. Traders should watch for a consolidation between these levels, as a break in either direction will likely set the trend for the coming weeks. Volume and RSI divergence will be important to confirm any breakout.

The outlook for MCX Gold is bearish, with a likely drift toward the support zone at ₹123,124 if the FOMC statement is hawkish. However, the RSI at 60.1 suggests that there is still some upward momentum, and a dovish Fed could trigger a bounce toward ₹127,431. The flat MACD indicates indecision, so traders should wait for a clear signal. Key levels to monitor are ₹123,690 and ₹128,222, which define the weekly range. A break below the lower bound would confirm a bearish trend, while a move above the upper bound would negate it. The RBI MPC minutes and US data will be critical, as they influence the USD/INR and gold's appeal. Given the festive demand, any dip may attract physical buying, providing a floor. Traders should remain cautious and use stop-losses.