MCX Gold Forecast
This Week

MCX Gold is currently trading at ₹132,609 per 10 grams, reflecting a bearish bias after last week's decline. The metal slipped from higher levels as a stronger US dollar and rising bond yields weighed on global gold prices, while the rupee's depreciation against the dollar cushioned the downside on the domestic front. Technical indicators confirm the bearish sentiment: the RSI(14) stands at 45.6, below the neutral 50 mark, and the MACD remains below its signal line. Additionally, the price is trading below both the EMA20 and EMA50, reinforcing the negative short-term momentum. Last week's price action was driven by cautious Federal Reserve commentary and profit booking ahead of key US data. The weekly range estimate of ₹128,609 to ₹136,608 suggests further downside potential, with traders eyeing the upcoming RBI MPC minutes and US FOMC statement for directional cues.

This week, the most significant macro driver for MCX Gold is the US FOMC statement on Wednesday, which will shape expectations for interest rate cuts. Any hawkish tone could strengthen the dollar and push gold lower, while a dovish surprise may trigger a relief rally. Domestically, the RBI MPC minutes released on Monday will be closely watched for insights on the central bank's inflation and rupee outlook, directly impacting USD/INR and thereby MCX gold prices. Additionally, Indian gold import duty remains at ~15%, keeping domestic prices elevated relative to international rates. With festive demand season approaching, physical buying may provide a floor, but current bearish technicals and a strong dollar could cap upside. The US initial jobless claims and PMI flash data later in the week will also influence risk sentiment and gold's safe-haven appeal.

The immediate support for MCX Gold is at ₹127,609, a level that has held during previous corrections. A break below this could accelerate selling toward the next psychological support near ₹125,000. On the upside, resistance is firm at ₹137,608, which aligns with recent swing highs. If the price manages to close above this level, it would signal a reversal of the bearish trend and open the door for a test of ₹140,000. However, given the current bearish crossover of EMAs and RSI below 50, the path of least resistance remains downward. Traders should watch for a break of ₹128,609 (weekly range low) to confirm further weakness, while a rally above ₹135,000 would suggest short-term strength but still face selling pressure near resistance.

The outlook for MCX Gold is bearish for the coming week, with a likely test of the lower end of the range near ₹128,609. The combination of a strong US dollar, hawkish Fed expectations, and bearish technical indicators suggests limited upside. Key events to watch include the US FOMC statement on Wednesday, which could trigger volatility; any indication of delayed rate cuts would be negative for gold. Domestically, the RBI MPC minutes may influence the rupee, but the overall trend remains dollar-driven. A break below ₹127,609 support would confirm a deeper correction. Conversely, if the FOMC surprises with a dovish tilt, gold could bounce toward ₹135,000–₹136,000. Traders should monitor the ₹132,000 level as a pivot; sustained trading below it favors bears, while a close above ₹134,000 would challenge the bearish view.