If you've ever looked at international gold at $2,350/oz and then at MCX Gold at ₹72,000/10g and wondered how they relate — this article explains everything. The connection is direct, and understanding it helps you forecast MCX Gold using global signals.
The Formula
MCX Gold (₹/10g) =
XAU/USD × USD/INR ÷ 31.1035 × 10
31.1035 = troy ounce in grams · ×10 = price per 10 grams
Breaking it down:
- XAU/USD — International gold price in US dollars per troy ounce (from COMEX futures or spot)
- USD/INR — The current dollar-to-rupee exchange rate
- ÷ 31.1035 — Converts from per troy ounce to per gram
- × 10 — Converts to per 10 grams (the standard MCX unit)
Live Example (June 2026)
XAU/USD = $3,290 / oz
USD/INR = ₹94.54
MCX Gold = 3290 × 94.54 ÷ 31.1035 × 10 ≈ ₹1,00,005 / 10g
Why MCX Gold and XAU/USD Don't Always Move Together
The formula shows that MCX Gold is driven by two separate markets — international gold AND the rupee exchange rate. This creates situations where they diverge:
MCX Gold rises when:
- XAU/USD rises (more dominant)
- USD/INR rises (rupee weakens)
- Both move in the same direction
MCX Gold falls when:
- XAU/USD falls sharply
- USD/INR falls (rupee strengthens)
- Rupee gain offsets gold rally
Real scenario
International gold rises 2% but the Indian rupee strengthens 1.5% (USD/INR falls). MCX Gold in rupees rises only ~0.5% — much less than expected if you only watched XAU/USD. This is why forex traders sometimes find MCX Gold moves surprising.
What Drives MCX Gold (Beyond the Formula)
The formula explains how MCX Gold is priced. These factors explain why it moves:
US Fed policy
Gold is priced in USD. When the Fed raises rates, the dollar strengthens and gold typically falls. When the Fed cuts, gold rallies. This is the single biggest global driver.
USD/INR rate
Every 1% weakening of the rupee adds ~1% to MCX Gold prices (all else equal). RBI intervention caps some of this.
Domestic demand
India is the world's second-largest gold consumer. Festive season (Diwali, Akshaya Tritiya) and wedding season create seasonal demand spikes.
Import duty
India levies import duty on gold (currently 15%). Any changes to this duty cause immediate MCX Gold repricing.
Global risk sentiment
Gold is a safe-haven asset. Geopolitical tension or market stress drives capital into gold globally, lifting XAU/USD and MCX Gold.
MCX vs COMEX: Which Should I Watch?
If you trade MCX Gold futures on the Indian market, watch both:
- COMEX gold (XAU/USD or GC futures) for global direction
- USD/INR for the currency overlay
- MCX spot/futures spread for any domestic premium
For educational purposes only. MCX Gold prices fluctuate based on market conditions, exchange rates and import duty changes. Past forecasts do not guarantee future accuracy.